L.H. Immers and B.J. de Wilde

Possibilities for Bicycle Transport in Developing Countries

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DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN DEMAND AND SUPPLY

Transport has no absolute meaning by itself; it is a derived need. The need for transport stems from man's other needs and the activities he has to engage in to satisfy them. In theory local movement needs define the most desirable transport system. By taking a closer look at the local conditions and the generated demand for transport and by matching them with the present transport system, several discrepancies are found. There exists a large gap between the transport requirements and th4e modes of transport currently available to the majority of the population.

Invariably, the urban structures are dominated by a central business district. The absence of dispersed subcenters intensifies cross-town traffic and imposes long average trip lengths. Adding to this is the very rapid growth and the periphery where poorly implemented landuse regulations allow for uncontrolled expansion of the squatter areas. This phenomenon is further enhanced by the relatively low densities in the urban areas.

Because of general lack of funds, programs for the provision of infrastructure cannot keep pace with the urban growth as a result of which people in the fringe are denied access to the transportation system. Increased triplelengths particularly affect commuting-to-work trips, which represents about half of all trips, and school trips. Where walking previously sufficed, other modes of transport are increasingly needed simply to reach work or school. Shopping trips also form a substantial of the total number of trips. With poor transport means an individual can only buy what he can carry home. Several journeys have thus to be made to do the daily shopping. The random availability of most commodities creates an additional number of trips that have to be made in "hunting" the desired goods.

Considering the magnitude of small-scale agriculture, it is merely logical that rural transport should satisfy the movement needs of the subsistence farmer. The extension of links to the rural producers is a prerequisite for regional economic development and for an efficient and reliable distribution of farm products. In 1978 75 per cent of the farming household spent less than $370 (11) precluding them from any kind of motorized transport. As "the farmers are above all carriers, typically 70 per cent of their work involves transport" (12, 13, 14) strong emphasis should be on affordable means of transport.

Although statistically sound data are not available a certain profile of the farmers' requirements can be obtained. In most cases the distance between a farmer's dwelling and storage facility and his shamba is 2 to 4 km (15).

Movement of agricultural inputs such as seeds, manure and sometimes insecticides as well as movement of harvested crops are all part of normal farming operations. Selling at the farmgate becomes less and less popular as the traders operate very inefficiently in collecting produce and offer low producer prices. Thus farmers have to depend on local markets. When transporting produce to these markets, farmers heavily rely on head porterage. Since there is a limit to what the body can take, loads usually do not exceed 30 kg: this ancient method of transportation is very much time- and effortconsuming. As a result, farmers need to harvest just enough for their immediate consumption and the surplus goes unharvested. This causes the market system to suffer from a lack of supply and a corresponding hike in prices. A World Bank study carried out in neighboring Kenya (16), indicates that the transport needs of families operating smallholdings can be characterized as the movement of small loads (10-50 kg) over relatively short distances (1-25 km). On-farm the range of loads was likely to be the same but typical distances were shorter.

"It is impossible to deny that the women do more than their fair share in the fields," president Nyerere commented (17). About 70 percent of the farm work is done by women. In general housekeeping they also carry out essential tasks such as fetching water and firewood. As in many Tanzanian villages the distance to a safe water source is between 1 and 3 km (18); fetching water for a household can take up to six hours a day. In some parts, provision of the annual firewood requirements for a household of five persons is already taking 250 to 300 mandays of work (19). This situation, which also applies to Kenya and Nepal (20) will get even worse as deforestation spreads and the women have to walk longer distances to their woodlots. Since these tasks clearly stand in the way of agricultural production more efficient means of transport than human porterage will allow for more time devoted to proper farm husbandry.

A total of 46 000 passengers cars out of a population of 20 million, or a density of 2.3 passengercars per 1000 persons, clearly underlines the exclusive position of the automobile in the Tanzanian transport system (21).

It is not very likely that private motorization will play a more substantial role in the future. In the framework of a generally socialist policy, it is considered to be a luxury that should be effectively curtailed given the state of the economy. Import licencing controls, for instance, are stringent and insure that licences are issued for essential items only. To preserve foreign exchange the Bank of Tanzania allocated only $l million for the purchase of vehicle spare parts for the January - June 1982 period while applications had totaled $51 million. For the same reason only 18 per cent of the amount applied for (108 million) was allocated for importing motor vehicles (22). As a result the present growth rate of the motor vehicle fleet is less than 2 percent. The car density however is declining.

To cut down on oil imports private motorization is further discouraged by energy conservation measures such as setting petrol consumption rates, limitation of operating hours of petrol station a Sunday driving ban and sharp increase in fuel prices (Fig 3.).

FIGURE 3: Fuel price development

In rural areas transport services are almost exclusively limited to regional and national routes. Here local public transit is virtually absent.

In urban areas most of the publicly operated transit systems have ceased to exists for various reasons. In Dar es Salaam City (1,2 million inhabitants) about the only urban area where public transit services are provided the system operated by Shirika la Usafiri Dar es Salaam (UDA) is inadequate both in level of service and in areas served. The increasing gap between UDA's optimal and actual bus fleet puts a serious strain on the capacity of the operative bus system (Fig. 4). Results show an average overloading of 50 per cent and long waiting times for passengers. Low bus frequencies and the absence of bus services in several areas lead to increased walking distances and delays for many passengers (23).

FIGURE 4: Growth rates of UDA buses and passengers

Although these deficiencies have stimulated para-transit services under private and parastatal ownership. The suppressed demand is still estimated at 37 per cent (2).

Many people do not have access to employer bus services and cannot afford the prices charged by illegal bus operators ("dala dalas"). Even official bus fares though artificially kept low are beyond the means of the substantial part of the population. In Dar es Salaam city where approximately 50 per cent of all households live at or under the official minimum wagelevel of $60 per month (24), a typical fare of 10 cents per ride is already a considerable burden on a household's budget. The expected fare increase to 20 cents will force even more people to travel by foot in the future (Table 1).

TABLE 1: Acceptance of Fare Increase
Public Transport Dar es Salaam

Source: UDA, Revision of fares. Dar es Salaam 1982 (2).

According to import and production figures for bicycles and assuming an average lifespan of seven years it can be estimated that there are some 450,000 bicycles in Tanzania (25, 26). This puts the bicycle density at 23 bicycles per 1.000 persons.

Generally cycling is more popular in the northern parts of Tanzania than in the central and southern parts. Most likely this is due to differences in regional per capita incomes and to a lesser extent local topographical and climatic conditions.

Considering factors such as income the availability of bicycles, the quality of local infrastructure and the suitability of the bicycle for its intended use, it is very likely that the rate of bicycles in rural parts is substantially lower than in urban areas. Still even in mountainous villages several bicycles can be found in use. While a bicycle is not perfectly suited to the terrain and few journeys can be accomplished without pushing it its use clearly indicates that it is regarded better than the alternatives walking or headloading.

Unquestionable walking is by far the prevalent mode of transport in both urban and rural parts. While in urban areas traveling on foot accounts for 60 to 80 per cent of all trips (Table 2), in rural areas it is in fact the only way of getting around. Oddly enough, however, provisions for pedestrians are lacking.

Even in the construction of new roads provisions such as pedestrian crossings are not included. As a result walking the streets can be quite dangerous in many urban areas.

As with all kinds of facilities regardless of their nature provisions for pedestrians are completely a absent in rural areas. Fortunately the traffic composition is rather homogenous here because of the very small share of motorized vehicles and walking-conditions are therefore much safer.

TABLE 2: Modal split for all trip purposes in four towns

Private motorization is reserved to the top social strata. Considering the scale of affairs in public transport future travel demand can only be accommodated by walking and cycling. In case walking would be the only mode of transport open to the majority of the population the present low mass mobility would become even less and would put the transport problems beyond acceptable limits.

To meet the transport needs in urban and rural areas there is a high demand for a truly low-cost and highly flexible means of transport for passenger and small freight movement.

For political and economical reasons benefits should also include extraordinary fuel efficiency and prospects for local manufacture in order to generate employment save foreign currency as well as promote self-reliance. The bicycle combines all these advantages and has an impressive record for being a very successful means of transport in many countries.

Local conditions dictate effective usage of the bicycle. In urban areas the bicycle will mean a considerable improvement in commuting-to-work. Foremost emphasis will be on increased traveling radius (as compared to walking). In rural areas the increase in payload over head porterage will be the main feature. This would allow farmers TO engage more actively in the regional markets economy as heir links to the local markets would be Strengthened.

Broersma has evaluated the possible role of the bicycle in the regional activity system (27).

FIGURE 5: Regional Activity System, Source: Broersma