Mazingira Institute

Urban Bicycle Project

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Research plans and methods

1. Approach

   A review of the literature (See: U.S. Dept. of Transportation, Bikeways: State of the Art, FHWA-RD-74-56; Transportation Research Board, The Bicycle As A Transportation Mode, Record No. 570, 1976; Transportation Research Board, Pedestrian-Controls, Bicycle Facilities, Driver Research, and System Safety, Record No. 629, 1977; Barton-Ashman Associates, City of Toronto Bikeway Study, Working Paper No. 2 "Identifikation and Selection of High Priority Bicycling Corridors". March 1978.) reveals that no generally acceptable method for estimating urban utilitarian bicycle ridership levels and patterns exists. The small number of metropolitan governments, consultants or academics that have published bicycle studies (either as part of an integrated urban transport system or as a separate mode) use fairly simplistic "rules-of-thumb" to determine projected ridership levels. These methods tend to use a procedure of multiplying bicycle-trips-per-capita by the forecast population to arrive at total bicycle trips. The derivation and justification for the bicycle-trips-per-capita coefficient is invariably mysterious, inadequately explained or simply missing. This is not surprising, since the role of bicycles in urban transportation is rapidly changing and individual bicycling travel behavior is not well understood.

   The starting point of the proposed research is that individual modal choice takes into consideration characteristics of the trip itself (length purposc, etc.), economic factors (e.g. costs of the trip or family income) as well as cultural historical and social factors (e.g. individuals who drive a Mercedes have considerably higher status than those riding public transit). Proceeding from this proposition, the approach of the proposed research is necessarily multidisciplinary focusing on the variety, complexity and interrelationships among the multitude of factors influencing travel behavior.

   The research approach suggested for this study is not to forecast or predict future levels of bicycle use in Nairobi. Given the high degree of uncertainty in the urban and world environments.,forecacts of future bicycle uce would be incedible and unreliable. Rather, the approach of this research is to posit a series of bicycle ridership levels and derive their implications. Systematic studies of each hypothesized level will be undertaken so that comprehensive evaluations may be completed. In this way, a variety of scenarios of future bicycle use will be formulated.

   The scenarios describe the opportunities, difficulties and the socio-political issues that may arise with increased bicycle ridership. As such, they are not images of how the future will appear, but rather they are intended to be considered, analysed and evaluated. The one which is preferred will be selected as the most appropriate. Thus a scenario hypothesizes what the future could be what it will be.

   Recent experience in urban planning demonstrates that successfully implemented projectc are those in which the individuals, government agencies private establishments and community organizations most affected by the projects were involved in all phases of development. The intent of this research is to seek the participation of the major groups interested in the potential use of bicycles in Nairobi. These groups, together with the study team, will develop and evaluate scenarios of future bicycle use.

   The scenarios of future bicycle use will not be limited to simple extrapolations of existing trends. They will consider a wide variety of possible futures; some will depart from the conventional view of travel behavior to include innovative approaches for dealing with the fundamental challenges facing Nairobi's transport system. The researchers expect that the interest groups will respond to the on-going energy and transportaion crisis by actively confrontinq the situation and participating in the creation of a viable and sustainable future.

2. Research Plans

   The research is organized into five major tasks:

   1. determining the nature of the problem
   2. determining the nature of likey solutions (scenario development)
   3. undertaking a detailed analysis and evaluation of possible scenarios
   4. selecting a preferred scenario
   5. developing an implementation program
   The work to be undertaken in each of these tasks is discussed below.

1. Determining the Nature of the Problem

   The initial stage of the research is intended to identify explicitly and in detail the nature of the problem to be studied. This reconnaissance activity includes determining for whom it is a problem why it is a problem and where the problems exists. The sub-tasks to be completed are:
   
   

   1. Identify and interview the major interest groups

      Major interest groups will be identified and contacted. Examples of the groups to be includcd are: Nairobi City Council, Ministry of Transportation and Communications, User-Groups (e.g. Kenya Railways Workers, Retail Stores delivering goods by bicycle etc.). Bicycle Manufactures, public Schools, Matatu Operators, Kenya bus Company, and Kenya Automobile Association.

      Interviews will be held to establish their positions with respect to the urban transportation problem in general, and in particular the role that bicycles might play. If bicycle use were to be increased, then what would be the needs of each of these groups? What are their views of the obstacles that prevent greater bicycle ridership? In addition to obtaining valuable information, the research team will attempt to gain the support and cooperation of these groups.

   2. Collect Data on Travel Behavior and Land-Use Patterns

      Bicycles are one element of the larger urban transport system. To understand the interactions between bicycles and other modes as well as to gain an appreciation for the general pattern of land-use/transportation relationships, the researchers propose to collect and summarize existing data on travel behavior and land-use patterns. Nairobi has benefited from one maior urban development study (Nairobi Urban Study Group, Nairobi: Metropolitan Growth Strategy, Vol I and II, City Council of Nairobi, 1973.) and is currently in the process of a second World Bank urban II Project. While these studies will provide essential background data, neither deals with bicycles as a legitimate mode of transportation. Examples of the type of data to be gathered include: patterns of land uses; population distribution by small geographical areas; employment distribution by small geographical areas; cordon counts; traffic counts; pubilc transit ridership by route; matatu ridership and routes; forecasted growth of population, employment and traffic; parking areas and facilities, etc. It should be emphasized that previous work reveals that this information exists in various places in government agencies (primarily in Nairobi City Council) and that the research team will have to collect, organize and refine it. However, no new data will be gathered.

   3. Review Experiences of Other Third World Urban Areas

      Some research is beginning to emerge on the use of non-motorized vehicles for urban transport in Third World countries. The study team will review this literature to determine its relevancy for Nairobi. Also the documented experiences of North American, European and Asian cities will be reviewed.

2. Determining the Nature of the Likely Solution (Scenario Development)

   The objective of this task is to determine the nature of possible solutions. The possible solutions will take the form of scenarios of future levels and patterns of bicycle ridership. The implications of the hypothesized bicycle trips will he described in each scenario.
   
   

   1. Estabilshment of Evaluation Criteria

      Prior to developing the scenarios of future bicycle use, the research team will estabilsh a set of criteria to evaluate each alternative. While it is premature to describe the evaluation criteria in detail it is, nevertheless, possible to indicate general categories:
      
      

      1. Expected bicycle ridership level
      2. Ease of integration into existing transport system (infrastructure costs as well as changes in travel behavior)
      3. Required safety measures
      4. Legislative changes
      5. Petroleum and foreign exchange savings
      6. Creation of employment opportunities
      7. Investment needs

   2. Scenario Development

      The research team, in cooperation and with the participation of the major interest groups, will formulate scenarios of bicycle use patterns in Nairobi. The scenarios will posit various levels of passenger and freight bicycle ridership and describe the demand corridors where trips are likely to occur.

3. Detailed Analysis and Evaluation of the Scenarios

   Having developod general images of bicycle ridership patterns in Nairobi, the research team will undertake a series of studies to determine, in detail, the merits of each.
   
   

   1. Selection and Design of Bike Routes
      1. Develop Route Selection Criteria
      2. Identify Possible Alternative Routes
      3. Evaluate Various Routes
      4. Decide on Type of Bikeway For Each Link (e.g. Sepatate Bikeway, Mixed with Automobiles or Pedestrians, One-wayor Two-Way, etc.)
      5. Design Bikeway (Physical Requirements, Signing Signals, etc.)
   2. Design of Parking Facilities
      1. Estimate Need
      2. Determine Locations
      3. Consider Design of Facility
   3. Identify Safety Measures
      1. Traffic Control at Intersections
      2. Mixing of Autos, Pedestrians, or Buses
      3. Reflectors and Other Warning Devices
      4. Legislation for Bicycle Safety
   4. Petrleum and Foreign Exchange Savings
      1. Estimate Ridership Expected To Divert From Autos or Buses
      2. Calculate Energy Savings
   5. Employment Opportunity
      1. Estimate Demand for Bicycle Vehicles, Parking Stands, Reflectors and Security Devices
      2. Determine Production Possibilities in Kenya
      3. Estimate Employment Impacts
   6. Evaluate Scenarios
      Each scenario will be evaluated by applyinq the criteria that will be established. The analyses in the previous subtasks will provide the information required to undertake those evaluations.

4. Selecting a Preferred Scenario
   1. Consult with Major Interest Groups

      The research team will consult with the major interest groups to describe and explain the work completed and the results obtained. Each group will be requested to review the material and select a preferred scenario.

   2. Meet with Major Interest Groups

      A meeting of the major interest groups will be organized to discuss the scenarios, and to select one that is preferred by a consesus of the groups.

   3. Report Results of Research and Meetings

      The study team believes that before proceeding with the implementation phase IDRC should have the opportunity to critically review and discuss the work completed. Thus at this stage a Progress Report will be submitted, and a meeting held to discuss the findings and respond to questions or comments by IDRC.

5. Development of Implementation Procedure

   The study team expects that the research findings will serve as the foundation for developing an implementation program. If a pilot or demonstration project appear as a useful metod of proceeding, then the study team would describe, in detail, how and where this project should be undertaken. This means that one travel corridor will be selected and the routes within the corridor identified. Facilities for bikeways, parking and security will be suggested. Safety measures and legislative changes will be formulated. A procedure for obtaining the support and cooperation of the potential bike users and government agencies will be recommended. The final major task, then, is the development of an implementation program that includes phasing and budget requirements.