Raimund K. Herz

The Use of the Bicycle

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TRENDS, POTENTIALS AND POLICIES FOR CYCLING

Apart from the general notion of a recent increase in bicycle use, there is little empirical evidence in quantitative terms about this trend, let-alone its structure of causes and supporting elements. For the towns of Detmold, Rosenheim, Landshut and Offenburg and the metropolitan areas of Hannover and Stuttgart, Brög has conducted KONTIV-like surveys in 1980181 and compared bicycle trip rates with the 1976 results.¹³ Bicycle use doubled in the model towns for the promotion of cycling by the German Federal Environmental Agency. In the Hannover region bicycle trips increased by 20 percent. There was no overall change in the region of Stuttgart, where the topography is very unfavourable to cycling, but in the central city bicycle use increased significantly, albeit from a very low level. Generally bicycle use increased most where bike trip rates had been low before. In this case a major part came from the car drivers who switched to the bicycle. If bike trip rates had been high, cycling seems to have gained more from walking.

The magnitude of the cycling potential from trips by car may be illustrated by a simple calculation: Consider only five percent of all trips by car, that is just one out of four trips which are shorter than two kilometers, would be made by bicycle. The result is an overall increase of bicycle trips by 17 percent.

Changes in the socio-economic structure of the population can safely be excluded from the list of factors which have effectively contributed to the growth of bicycle use. Five years are too short for major structural changes. It could be easily shown that the effects of structural change on the number of bicycle trips are insignificant. In the long run, however, greater effects are to be expected. By 1990 the number of German boys and girls of 10 to 18 years of age will diminish by one third. Given the same bicycle trip rates for this population subgroup as in 1976, this would ceteris paribus lead to a decrease of bicycle trips by almost 15 percent. Furthermore, if bicycle trip rates of housewives continue to be about 20 percent higher than those of employed women and if women succeed in getting employment and shorten their traditional role as a housewife, we would expect another slight decline of cycling. So, under socio- demographic aspects the long-term auspices for the bicycle's share among all modes of transport are decline.

However, there are considerable potentials for bicycle use which can be activated by various policies. From looking at Table I, the population subgroups with the largest deficits of cycling can be identified. They come from motorized households: first employed men, then employed women and housewives. Even among schoolchildren, girls still reveal a latent demand for cycling: boys use their bikes 50 percent more often. The latent demand of women also appears from their shorter median bike trip lengths. From the fact that median bike trip length to work is longer than to other places of activity one can conclude that non-work trips offer a greater potential for the bicycle, and indeed, the percentage of bicycle use is smaller here in spite of the fact that these places of activity are nearer. It is remarkable to see the length of leisure trips made by the elderly by bicycle.

By looking at the figures of Tables IV and V we can focus on specific subgroups and get some hints of policies by which the potentials for cycling could be activated. The reluctance of young adults to use the bicycle might already have changed since 1976. The fact that higher education is associated with low bicycle use could encourage a public relations campaign on the advantages of the bicycle and the detrimental effects of a much too thoughtless use of the motor- car. The target groups clearly would have to be those who have a car at their disposal. The large potential which lies in the improvement of cycling facilities can be seen from the strong negative effects of large-size and high- density settlements. By installing priority paths for the bicycle without undue detours, interruptions, slopes, noise and air pollution, certainly large parts of the potential for cycling could be activated. In a hilly-topography bicycle paths would have to be very carefully designed along contour lines in order to increase the poor use of the bicycle there.

How large are these potentials and to what extent can they be activated by specific policies?

Category analysis of the above kind can give only rather crude answers to these questions. They would have to be based on cross-sectional and possibly longitudinal analyses and be assisted by reasonable argument and plausibility checks. Because the "with" and "without" conditions of specific policies were not constituent parts of the classification of population subgroups, this category analysis is not policy sensitive. So we would do better to turn to Brög's situational grouping approach.

In 1980 Socialdata conducted a survey for determining the potential of bicycle use in medium sized towns.¹⁴ The situational approach was applied to all trips up to 15 kilometers which were not made by bicycle. Through sophisticated interviewing techniques¹⁵ each trip was classified as to whether a specific restriction would prevent it from being made by bicycle. The results were then generalized to the extent that the specific situational context of the sampling day would hold for other days as well. The restrictions are checked in the following order:

1. There is no bicycle available.
2. The use of the bicycle is excluded by the need to transport baggage, by health reasons, weather conditions or because the car is needed for subsequent trips.
3. The route is perceived as too unsafe, too hilly and bicycle paths missing.
4. Cycling is perceived as too slow. too tiring and liable to dirty clothing.
5. The person is unwilling to use the bicycle for various attitudinal reasons.

By these restrictions the number of trips which could possibly switch to the bicycle is reduced step by step down to a potential of trips, which are not seriously restricted with respect to the modal choice of the bicycle. Under present conditions in the sampling towns, this was the case for 30 percent of all non-bike trips up to 15 kilometers made by the more mobile persons. From Table IX it also becomes apparent that in this respect trips by public transport are the least restricted ones and that trips by car are the ones which would most rarely switch to the bicycle.

The percentages which are excluded from the potential by each type of restriction help to identify those policies which most effectively encourage the use of the bicycle, without promoting cycling at the expenses of the "wrong" mode. The aim of cycling policies is to reduce the traffic volumes of private cars and not to lose public transport patronage. Most trips by car are restricted to switch to the bicycle by objective constraints and a subjective malperception of cycling, while trips by public transport are restricted to a relatively large extent by malperceptions of the cycling route.

So improving bicycle networks and their perception would only slightly affect car drivers and would mainly divert public transport passengers. For the target groups of car drivers, technical improvements with respect to the bicycle's capability of transporting baggage and with respect to weather protection should be combined with public relations work for cycling.

TABLE IX Delimiting the potential of bicycle use¹⁵

Through interactive measurement techniques Brög has tried to quantify the extent to which the respective potentials for cycling could be activated by various policies and combinations thereof.¹⁵ In a community climate favourable to cycling, an increase by 50 percent in the bicycle's share of all trips may be realistically achieved here within the short term.