|
Pedalizing Eritrea ReportJ. Heyen-Perschon & B. Gruehl Kipke |
|
|
|
|
Written by Barbara Gruehl Kipke Use the headlines below to navigate directly to one chapter Contents
PROJECT OBJECTIVES
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF EXISTING REPORTS
RECOMMENDATIONS
1. Project objectives Supporting cycling is one way to promote "Mobility for the Majority". Cycling is not an elite phenomena - it can be viable for large segments of a population (even in poorer countries). The human costs of accidents with motorized vehicles are significant and can be reduced through substitution by sustainable modes that do not have such severe accidents as a consequence. The promotion of cycling encourages dissemination of an appropriate intermediate technology that can be serviced locally. 1.2 Additional benefits of supporting such a project from the perspective of HBS (Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung / Heinrich Böll Foundation): It would be the first project in Germany supporting sustainable transport modes in developing countries to my knowledge. In other words, it would encourage other projects to follow suit and incorporate the sustainable transport modes into the mainstream of their transport components. Cycling is a valuable transport mode both in urban and rural settings in developing countries and needs to find support via a lobby in order for cycling to flourish. There is dire need of a pilot project to demonstrate the potential of investing in sustainable transport modes such as the bicycle. At present, cycling as a transport mode is treated as a step-child by German development organisations. Germany is "exporting" the motorized paradigm without admitting that even in our highly developed country there is still scope and sense to promoting cycling. According to the papers written by Ruffer and Wais the following project aims were identified:
The issue of gender sensitivity needs to be addressed because there are many instances where women have not benefited from the increased mobility that cycling Gould afford them. It would be a mistake to reduce this project component to a discussion an the need for so-called "ladies bicycles". Supporting cycling means ensuring that both men and women/girls and boys:
The main benefit of the two studies from Ruffer and Wais are the valuable background Information provided on the Eritrean bicycle market (even though some aspects need to be elaborated). The recommendations proposed need to be questioned, however. 2.1 Import of second-hand bicycles It can not be recommended to follow the strategy of importing second-hand bicycles from Germany. There are a lot of open questions regarding the personnel (organisational), financial and technical sustainability of the whole project both on the Eritrean and on the German side. Furthermore, elaborate control mechanisms would have to be conceived to ensure the Eritrean bicycle market was not disturbed by the Import of second-hand bicycles from Germany. 2.1.1 Personnel/Organisational Aspects Ruffers` report is based on the collection of up to 20000 bicycles. Using his own assumption of 1-2 used bicycles per 1000-2000 inhabitants (p. 13) that would mean that 10 - 40 million inhabitants would have to be reached in order to achieve such an Impact. Since Germany presently has about 80 million inhabitants altogether, this order of magnitude would mean that the second-hand bicycle collection would have to be nation-wide. A nation-wide collection of second-hand bicycles is an enormous logistical task that could not be handled by voluntary helpers. In Ruffer's concept, the collection, preselection and recycling of the used bicycles in differrent regions/towns in Germany depend more or less exceptionally on reliable and long-term beneficiary work (p.16). It is not only doubtful, if students, bicycleenthusiasts and German bicycle-shops are really able to spend the needed time on the project and if it can be coordinated efficiently. Since this project is not laid out for a single donation of bicycles, another question is, whether those volunteers would agree to work on the same issue a second or third time. All in all it seems, that a lot of preconditions must work together efficiently and there must be a parallel coordination of measures and steps in Eritrea and Germany at the same time, if the whole project is to be sucessful (see scenario on p.24, Ruffer). When taking on such a large-scale endeavour in both Germany and Eritrea, it is easy to lose focus and finally, not do a good job in either country. It is already a big task to effectively promote cycling in Eritrea. There would likely be competition for scarce personnel resources qualified in the field of sustainable transport who would be needed in both Germany and Eritrea. 2.1.2 Financial Aspects Ruffer assumes that 40 DM/bicycle can be saved if the number of bicycles collected is doubled from 5000 to 10000 bicycles and that the unit cost for 20000 bicycles would be almost half that of 5000 bicycles. The underlying assumption is that the fixed costs of promotional activities are high (about 400 TDM) in comparison to the variable costs of collection of bicycles, selection of suitable bicycles, storage of bicycles until they are ready to be sent via container, disposal of unsuitable bicycles etc. In my opinion, the proportion of variable costs to fixed costs will be higher but all these calculations are dependant on the success of promotional activities in Germany which can not be planned in advance since it is based on the goodwill of the German population. These figures are, in other words, very speculative leaving room for doubt, whereas the costs of importing bicycles from China and India are well-known reliable figures. Ruffer's figures for imported CKD-Bicycles from the Far East to the port of Massava are DM 186,- per bicycle (p. 25). If these figures are compared with those of the Bicycle-Sponsorship-Project of Jugendhilfe Ostafrika (Uganda) the price estimated seems to be too high: Jugendhilfe Ostafrika actually pays DM 125,- per bicycle of two imported boxes (each includes 6 bicycles) from India and delivered to Jinja (April 1998). This price is higher than usual because of a deteriorating US$- exchange-rate. Additionally the price per bicycle falls, if a whole container is ordered and/or the high Import-tax (48% !) were to be lowered 1. It already costs from 84 - 124 DM / bicycle to get bicycles from Germany to the port of Massava (p. 25) whereas new 1-gear bicycles in Asmara cost between 160-190 DM. If the same funds/donations could still be mobilized in Germany, a subsidy of between 44%-77% / bicycle would be conceivable. Since both Wais and Ruffer do not consider importing second-hand bicycles a long-term proposal - but rather a step towards production of bicycles in Eritrea - it would be better to invest in concepts that have a long-term impact. 2.1.3 Technical Aspects Higher maintenance costs and complicated logistics for the provision of spare parts of second-hand bicycles can be expected-. The maintenance of common Asian bicycles is cheaper and faster than the maintenance of second-hand-bicycles with a difficult spare-parts-situation in the long run. Running costs of recycled bicycles would be higher. A collection of second-hand-bicycles will result in a high number of not only different types but also different years of production, which means, that a high number of different tools and spare-parts must also be collected. This might be a big problem even for engaged and motivated German traders. Additional tools, spares and bicycles must be collected and delivered together, which is another logistical problem. Even if bicycles are preselected in Germany, there is a great risk, that repairs are not possible. This is all the more relevant the farther away bicycles are distributed (where repair-services are few and far between and special spare parts are not available). The general opinion concerning the PfP-bicycles is, that they are of poor quality, need costly maintenance and are not durable" (Wais,p.25).Even in case of preselection, the level of maintenance and high durability are not guaranteed. The result could be the same low image of donated bicycles as was experienced in the PfP-project. There is consequently a permanent and high dependancy on spare-partsdonations from Germany In addition, the distributed tools are presumed to be second-hand-tools which are often worn! 2.1.4 Potential Disturbance of the Eritrean Bicycle Sector Based on a total of about 70000 bicycles in Eritrea, adding 5000 to 20000 second-hand bicycles into Eritrea would mean a market share for these German bicycles of between 7 and 22% which is quite a significant proportion. As Wais mentions, "the main issue remains to keep the donated bicycles out of the retail market" (p.29) - lf, for example, a lot of women with no cycling-experience receive the bicycles, they will probably sell them again. To avoid this, control is necessary, which would produce further costs and logistic planning. A study in Uganda found out, that 33% of donated bicycles were given away, although 44% of the women were heads of those households 2. In conclusion, for personell/organisational, financial and technical reasons as well as the long-term perspective (or lack thereof), it is preferable to opt for the assembly of Indian/Chinese CKD bicycles rather than invest scarce resources in a questionable import of second-hand bicycles. 2.2 Bicycle production in Eritrea It is not economically justified to start up a proper bicycle production facility in Eritrea even in the longer term. DOE needs to be informed about the disadvantages of following that route in order that long-term plans can be adjusted accordingly. 2.2.1 Economies of Scale Bicycle production facilities in Africa have existed since the 1960s (in Tanzania, Zimbabwe and Burkina Faso) and more recently in Uganda. These bicycle production sites have existed over a number of years because they have been protected industries. Import taxen have been levied in order to distort the market in favour of local production. African bicycles will unfortunately never be competitive in the world markets because of lack of economies of scale. Both China and India have the advantage of far larger domestic markets. In China, the company Tianjin produced 4000000 bicycles in a year (equivalent to over 10000 bicycles per day)3. Their daily production level can be expected to be the yearly production level of a start-up production facility in Eritrea! The worst scenario for "mobility of the majority" is if import restrictions are put in place in order to protect an uncompetitive national industry. The production of bicycles is a complicated process entailing about 1000 different components. Larger production sites have numerous advantages:
Ruffer's calculations appear somewhat optimistic and would need to be recalculated including a clear differentiation between fixed and variable costs. For example, it is suggested that 15 workers could assemble 30 bicycles per day and this is projected an 333 working days in order to reach an output of about 10 000 bicycles in one year (Ruffer, p.26). This could only be accomplished under optimal conditions (regular supply with bicycles, spare-parts and tools, low illness, etc.) 2.2.2 Export of Bicycles One way to reach economies of scale is by exporting bicycles to other countries. Unfortunately, it can not be expected that Eritrea will be able to export locally produced bicycles in a large-scale. In order to export bicycles to neighbouring countries like Sudan or Ethiopia (Wais, p.6) it would be a precondition, that they are cheaper and at least of the same quality as imports from Asia or other countries. Experience from Tanzania (Nabico) shows, that production of a cheaper bicycle with the same quality is a big problem. Furthermore, Ethiopia recently established it's own production facility 4 - the "EthioBicycle" - competition might grow during the next years in case bicycles were exported to Eritrea rather than the other way around (this production facility was not a private-sector initiative and is likely to be uncompetitive unless it is highly subsidized - which is what has happened in the start-up phase). 2.2.3 Employment Effects The main advantage of setting up a local production facility would be the jobs it creates. Ruffer mentions about 70 workers (p. 26) who would be trained and become highly skilled in an appropriate intermediate technology. Nevertheless, the total number of people employed in the bicycle sector would presumably fall, because higher end-user prices (due to uncompetitive prices) would reduce the demand for bicycles and would lessen employment in the secondary/subsequent industries such as bicycle sales, bicycle repair and guarded bicycle parking. It would therefore be unwise to prioritize the employment effects created by a local bicycle production facility because the more important objective of achieving improved mobility for large segments of the population should be paramount. In the final analysis, even more jobs can be expected to be created by the secondary industries surrounding the bicycle. 2.2.4 Assembly of CKD bicycles On the other hand, local bicycle assembly of CKD bicycles is usual practice around the world. As Ruffer states, proper assembly, fixing and final checking of bicycles can increase the durability of a bicycle up to 100%. Ensuring that a professional job is dope on the assembly and later servicing of bicycles is a very useful proposition. Finally, both the import of second-hand bicycles and local production of bicycles would reduce the level of south/south trade between states (Eritrea with either China or India). This would not be detrimental to China or India due to the low volumes involved, but every contribution to economies of scale (in China/India) improves production processes and keeps prices down. 3. Recommendations 3.1 General approach/philosophy In general terms, transport policy in developing countries should achieve the goal of introducing a comprehensive rather than a piecemeal approach. An integrated mobility strategy embraces the following factors-.
Due to the limited nature of a pilot-project, more down-to-earth approaches need to be pursued in the short-term until capacity building can finally take hold at a later stage that takes these more extensive (and expensive) aspects into account. One step in this process is to sensitize transportation planners regarding transport modes such as the bicycle that have been overlooked in past plans. Even smaller scale projects should be accompanied by the corresponding monitoring in Order to improve the bicycle-related database. This report argues that neither the route of importing second-hand bicycles from Germany nor long-term local bicycle production should be strived at (which are the main recommendations coming out of the Ruffer and Wais reports). This report does, however, consider bicycle advancement as described below a valuable step an the way to the Integration of all transport modes since all "market segments" 5 together provide the best concept for the transport situation as a whole and each transport mode has requirements that must be dealt with individually. User needs and perspectives can and should be incorporated even in a limited scope project because the majority actually have the most to gain by bicycle enhancement. Gendersensitivity is also possible at this early stage 6 as seen below. The other worthwhile concepts should be kept in mind in the pilot stage, but could not be implemented in the beginning. 3.2 German post bicycles as a compromise Despite the objections that have been raised in this report, HBS may nevertheless still be interested in supplying Eritrea with second-hand bicycles. A possible reason could be the importance of sensitizing the German people to the situation in developing countries via this route. An additional idea in this case would be to think about used bicycles from the German Post. The German Post uses its bicycles for only 4 years after which the bicycles are sold to bicycle-traders in the whole country. These bicycles are often in a good condition. Each year the German Post takes more than one thousand used bicycles out of circulation. The German Post seems inclined to support such a project as a discourse with the Hamburg Post in 02/1998 showed. This would be a more limited approach that would entail far less logistical aspects and have the advantage of only one bicycle type being introduced to the Eritrean market with a high durability and simple technology. 3.3 Emulate "Jugendhilfe Ostafrika" approach Another course of action would be to replicate the Jugendhilfe Ostafrika 7 approach that has been very successful with a low budget. Their emphasis has been on distributing bicycles at subsidized rates (imported CKD bicycles from Asia). Jugendhilfe Ostafrika has concentrated on one bicycle assembly/repair facility where they train the youth. Promotional and monitoring activities accompany their work. Usually, it is difficult to justify an approach, however, that is based on a constant influx of foreign funds (ie. subsidization is of course not financially sustainable). The reason for nevertheless mentioning this approach is that relatively few funds are required to make an impressive impact. 3.4 Possible components of the bicycle advancement project in Eritrea Below is the recommended course of action: 3.4.1 Cycling coordinator At this initial stage in Eritrea, two main issues will probably need to be addressed in supporting bicycle advancement efforts:
It can be expected that Eritrean transport specialists are not very familiar with cycling issues because curricula of universities teaching transport subjects seldom include these aspects. Furthermore, transport specialists in Eritrea are likely to be engineers who do not haue the qualifications sociologists or economists/business administration experts bring along with them. Sociologists or economists/business administration specialists (as well as urban planners) need to be added to transport department teams in order to get away from focusing exclusively on infrastructure issues and instead of handling the whole spectrum of transport topics. It is therefore useful to introduce an interdisciplinary approach. An interdisciplinary approach can be facilitated by engaging an Eritrean cycling coordinator who should be either an economist/business administrator or a sociologist 8. Someone with either background would be useful because a cycling coordinator needs to understand the economics of the bicycle business in order to be able to support the bicycle sector and he/she needs to mobilize people in order that a "bicycle culture" develop/ a bicycle lobby be created. Since this is a new subject/employment profile for Eritrea, there would need to be training of the prospective cycling coordinator in Europe (Netherlands or Germany)9. Attendance at conferences such as "Velo-City" 10 where he/she can join the sustainable transport network" would be useful. The success of employing a cycling coordinator for Eritrea would depend to a great extent on who was chosen for the position. Careful selection of the employee would be required. The position would most likely be "attached" to a suitable transport department within the government administration. 3.4.1.2 Creation of a bicycle lobby The cycling sector is characterized by fragmentation. Cyclists are offen individualists. The bicycle sector is offen too weak and disorganised to have time to lobby for cycling issues in government institutions. Cycling can only prosper if there are organized groups that ensure cycling issues are dealt with at the government level and supported by an active private sector. Positive results have been obtained in the World Bank SSATP Non-motorized urban transport component with bicycle "platforms" 11 that are intervention-oriented. An Eritrean cycling coordinator would have the task of identifying all the pertinent interest groups who could be involved in developing a Cycling Action Plan ![]() A cycling coordinator would especially need to mobilize the users (cyclists and potential cyclists) so they could verbalize their needs. 3.4.2 Possible Issues of a Cycling Action Plan In order to facilitate deliberations on cycling issues, it has been useful to use a wheel with 18 potential issues ![]() (Diagram 2: How to Make the Wheels Go Round). These cycling components need to be prioritized by a Cycling Action Group. Although the results of the above-mentioned bicycle lobby are needed as input as to what the cycling priorities in Eritrea are, the studies of Ruffer and Wais indicate that certain components already seem to be worth giving consideration. 3.4.2.1 Gender-sensitive component Ruffer's and Wais' reports indicate that only a small proportion of women/girls are cycling 12 . There is no objective reason why women and children should be disadvantaged with regard to cycling. It is therefore important to pay special attention to equal rights of women and children when it comes to the advancement of cycling 13 because women and children should also benefit from the advantages of cycling. The possibility of credit-schemes for women who are interested in bicycles is worth further consideration 14 . As mentioned in the introduction of this report, however,
3.4.2.2 Bicycle repair component In a lot of cases the initial assembly of bicycles is incomplete and serious damage arises to the bicycles. There are a lot of repairs per bicycle and week, if a bicycle is used intensively. In addition, a lot of Asian bicycles are of bad quality 17 . Even a better bicycle with a stronger frame and spokes won't stand the typical burdens on bad roads and in a tropical climate according to Jürgen Heyen-Perschon. Some bicycle-users have 2-3 repairs per week (traders, farmers, bicycle-taxis 18) - which means a high dependancy on frequent repair-services. Therefore it is necessary to ensure a reliable, high-quality maintenance/ repairservice. Consequently a mechanic must be equipped with adequate tools and he/she always must have the spare-parts available - fitting each bicycle type delivered in the region. If this "in-time-repair" is not possible, other transport-costs may arise to the owner of the bicycle (e.g. taxi- or busfares during the waiting-time for spare-parts). Usually bicycle repairers have only received informal, ad-hoc training 19. The bicycle repairer business should be analysed because oftentimes they belong to the lowincome segment that can neither afford to purchase adequate tools nor have sufficient spare parts on stock. It would therefore make sense to introduce a bicycle mechanics training course that culminates in a special certificate for qualified bicycle-mechanics. Credit schemes for the informal sector bicycle repairers could also be given consideration to enable repairers to purchase needed tools and spare parts. Two out of the 18 spokes of "the wheel" have been mentioned here, but that does not imply that the other 16 issues are irrelevant to the Eritrean situation. lt is necessary for the sustainability of any project, that the Eritrean partners feel responsible for the project-aims from the beginning! Participation and management from the beginning are a precondition for success in the long run so that the prioritization of cycling issues should be undertaken in Eritrea itself. 4. Conclusion A more detailed analysis of the Eritrean situation would need to be based on a mission to that country. Budgets for the recommended courses of action could be estimated if required, but feedback to this report would be welcome beforehand. The objective of the Heinrich-Böll-Foundation was to find out how the usage of the bicycle in Eritrea can be enhanced and supported. lt would be detrimental to the sustainable transport sector if a discussion on this subject was not continued with the aim of finding a suitable pilot project in this field (whether it be in Eritrea or some other country). Appendix 1: Questions that could be raised to the DOE/Eritrean counterparts:
1Information by the Bicycle Workshop Jinja/Richard Kisamadu; 06/98 and Emmeram Raßhofer, Jugendhilfe Ostafrika Munich; 07/98 back 2 Heyen-Perschon, Jürgen: Sozialgeographische Untersuchung zum Einsatz des Fahrrades als Verkehrsmittel in ländlichen Räumen von Uganda, p.59 back 3 Gruehl Kipke, Barbara, back 4 Bicycle Reference Manual for Developing countries, GATE, April 1991, p. 35, Addis Tribune, 15.05.98 back 5 Pedestrians, cyclists, motorists, bus patrons etc. back 6 a), b), d) and i) can therefore be included in a pilot-stage project back 7 Jugendhilfe Ostafrika, c/o Adelheid Schulte-Bocholt & Emmeram Raßhofer, Thankirchen 3, 83623 Dietramszell, Tel./FAX: 08027/7114 e-mail: africa.bike@ilo.baynet.de back 8 refer also to the Job Description of a Cycling coordinator in: Gruehl Kipke, Barbara: Report on the Bicycle Supply Situation: How to Make the Wheels Go Round, Part 11, 1996, p.12 back 9 This training would have to be developed since there are no learning institutions that offer such a course. back 10 Velo Mondiale, Montreal, Kanada, Sept. 1992; Velo-City, Basel, Switzerland, Sept. 1995; Velo Australis, Fremantle, Australia, Oct./Nov. 1996; Velo City, Barcelona, Spain, Sept. 1997; Planned: Velo-City Graz/? 1999; Velo City Amsterdam, 2000 back 11 Users, private sector, government representatives work together to implement various interventions back 12 " At the moment, only about 0,1-0,5% of bicycles are ladies bicycles" (Ruffer, p. 8) back 13 refer also to an unpublished document: Gruehl Kipke, Barbara: Mobility for the Majority: Making Women and children Mobile, 1998 back 14 Wais especially mentions a credit fund for women with US$ 5.000 (p.28) back 15 Cycling has been taught in primary and secondary schools as part of the World Bank SSATP Non-motorized urban transport component for example back 16 Jugendhilfe Ostafrika has conducted women's cycling competitions for eg. back 17 This depends on the exact type/trade-mark: Hero - for example - sells bicycles of a better quality, Heyen-Perschon 1997 back 18 Heyen-Perschon, 1997 back 19 In Morogoro, Tanzania even bicycle repairers who had formed associations in 1974 and 1980 requested further training because they were not familiar with mountain bikes for eg. that are becoming more popular there. back |
|
|
Mail to: Barbara Gruehl Kipke (barbara@mobility-consultant.com) or to the Webmaster (webmaster@mobility-consultant.com). Back to the top |